Copilot as a Thinking and Planning Partner By the end of this lesson, students should be able to: Why hidden assumptions are dangerous. Every plan rests on assumptions – things taken for granted without being made explicit. Some assumptions are safe enough to leave implicit. Others are load-bearing: if they turn out to be wrong, the entire plan fails. The problem is not making assumptions – you cannot avoid them. The problem is making critical assumptions without knowing you are making them. The assumption audit. After developing any plan or argument: "I am going to share a plan with you. Your job is to identify the hidden assumptions – things I have taken for granted that would need to be true for this plan to succeed. Categorize them as: (1) assumptions that are probably safe (widely true, easily verified), (2) assumptions that should be tested (uncertain, possible to check), and (3) load-bearing assumptions that would cause the plan to fail if wrong. Here is the plan: [your plan]." Why load-bearing assumptions deserve special attention. A load-bearing assumption is one where: if it is wrong, the plan does not just get harder – it fails. Most plans have one or two load-bearing assumptions that are invisible to the planner because they feel so obvious they go unexamined. These are exactly the ones that cause expensive failures. Testing assumptions with evidence-seeking prompts. After surfacing an important assumption: "I am assuming [assumption]. What evidence would support or contradict this? What would I need to investigate to know whether this assumption is valid? What do we typically find when this assumption has been tested in similar situations?" The difference between surfacing and validating. Copilot can identify what your assumptions are – it cannot validate whether those assumptions are true in your specific context. Validating requires real-world investigation: talking to people, reviewing actual data, testing in small-scale first. Use Copilot to identify which assumptions need validation – then go validate them in the real world. A small business owner plans to launch a new product line. Her assumption audit with Copilot reveals 11 assumptions – and identifies two as load-bearing: that her current customer base wants the new product (not verified), and that her supplier can deliver at the required lead time (assumed from a casual conversation, not a confirmed agreement). Both were taken for granted. Addressing these two before investing $40,000 in inventory is the most valuable thing the assumption audit produces. Copilot surfaces assumptions based on its training data and general reasoning – not based on knowledge of your specific industry, market, or context. An assumption Copilot marks as "probably safe" may still be worth validating in your specific situation. Use the audit to identify what to investigate – not as a replacement for real-world validation. Log in and enroll to access lesson quizzes.
Lesson 1: Surfacing Hidden Assumptions
Lesson Objectives
Lesson Content
Practical Example
Safety Notes